UN Review Of Maritime Transport 2019 – UNCTAD Projects 2.6% Growth
The momentum of the World Maritime trade has gone down in 2018 with the volume expanding at 2.7 percent which is lower than the average percentage of 3.0% and 4.1% in 2017.
According to the records of UNCTAD, it is estimated that the total volume will reach 11 billion tons which is an all-time high. UNCTAD is expecting a growth of 2.6% in 2019 and an annual average growth rate of 3.4% for a period of 2019-2024.
However, the attainment of this estimation remains doubtful and challenging seeing the great uncertainty in the trade policy and the wide range of risks.
The world merchandise rate declined at an unexpected rate in 2018. The tariffs on trade between China and the United States saw great growth due to increasing trade tensions and the proliferation of national trade-restrictive measures in the two nations.
Apart from the trade policy crosscurrents, geopolitics and sanctions, concerns about the environment, fuel economies and tensions relating to the Strait of Hormuz which is a major maritime chokepoint were a part of the headlines.
The growth in the global economy and trade is a part of this trend. A reframing of the supply chain that favors of more regionalized trade flows, a constant rebalancing of the Chinese economy, a great part of technology and services in value chains and logistics, intensified and more frequent natural disasters and disruptions relating to climate and an increase in the sustainability agenda of the environment with a raised awareness about the impact of global warming.
A move to the new normal calls for a better understanding of the major issues at stake, better planning and flexible and policies about the future that can effectively anticipate change and bring in proper response measures that take into account the different nature of developing countries as a group and their different local conditions and needs.